A prizefighter with a dysfunctional family? A schizophrenic ballet dancer? A dream within a dream? The creator of Facebook? Perhaps even a bunch of toys that come to life? No, the smart money is on a stammering King of England.

The 2011 Academy Award for “Best Picture” is one of the fiercest races in recent memory. Since 2009, after the Academy announced the nominees in their flagship category would increase from 5 to 10, more room has been allotted for films that usually find it hard to crack onto the list, such as animated or sci-fi pictures. This year the list includes ilks of big-budget sci-fi, animated, psychological thriller, western, and of course drama. Though even with the expanded spectrum, a pure comedy is still the academy’s redheaded stepchild and has not seen a best picture nomination since 1997’s The Full Monty.


PROJECTIONS:

Best Actress In A Supporting Role

Who Will Win – Melissa Leo, (The Fighter)
Who Should Win – Hailee Steinfeld, (True Grit)
Dark Horse - Hailee Steinfeld, (True Grit)

No one should throw a tantrum if Melissa Leo takes home the Oscar as everyone thinks she will. Leo was phenomenal as the wayward mother of prizefighter Micky Ward in The Fighter. Her performance built animosity towards her character, passing a point of no redemption and then with a few simple scenes near the end, a believable and sympathetic mother who wants nothing more than the best for her sons shines through.

Hailee Steinfeld’s performance in True Grit as the strong-headed 14-year-old Mattie Ross, could be the best performance by a teenager since Jodie Foster in Taxi Driver (1977). Her nomination is actually completely out of place as she should be included with the nominees for “Best Actress,” considering she was in just about every scene of the film. Unfortunately there are no constringent rules that govern how the lines are drawn between supporting and lead actor nominations. Steinfeld commanded attention on the screen, held her own and at times even overshadowed the performances of Jeff Bridges and Matt Damon. It would not even be outrageous to claim that her performance is the dominant ingredient to True Grit’s “Best Picture” nomination.

Best Actor In A Supporting Role

Who Will Win – Christian Bale, (The Fighter)
Who Should Win - Christian Bale, (The Fighter)
Dark Horse – Geoffrey Rush, (The King’s Speech)

Probably the closest “sure thing” in this year’s Academy Awards is that Christian Bale will win the Oscar for his performance of Dicky Eklund, the crack addicted, past-his-prime boxer and half-brother of Micky Ward in The Fighter. The only obstacle in Bale’s way could be if the Academy decides to award a clean sweep to The Kings Speech, and bestow the honor on fellow nominee Geoffrey Rush. On Bale’s side though is the fact that Rush has already won an Oscar in 1997 for his performance in Shine. This is actually Bale’s first ever Oscar nomination and he is considered to be way overdue.

Best Actress In A Leading Role

Who Will Win – Natalie Portman, (Black Swan)
Who Should Win - Natalie Portman, (Black Swan)
Dark Horse – Jennifer Lawrence (Winter’s Bone)

Back in 2005 Natalie Portman was a long shot in the “Best Supporting Actor” category for her role in Closer. Now in 2011, she is the overwhelming favorite to land the “Best Actress” Oscar. Portman’s incredible portrayal of a professional ballet dancer who’s strive for perfection triggers her underlying condition of schizophrenia and/or multiple personality disorder, leaves a haunting remnant in audiences minds well after they exit the theaters. Portman has swept all of the major awards for her category leading up to Oscar night. Her only competition that has some reasonable clout is Jennifer Lawrence as Ree in Winter’s Bone. Lawrence has managed to defeat Portman in several smaller film festivals this year but the strength of Winter’s Bone is its ensemble cast, whereas Portman’s character of Nina Sayers is the spotlight of Black Swan.

Best Actor In A Leading Role

Who Will Win – Colin Firth, (The Kings Speech)
Who Should Win – James Franco, (127 Hours)
Dark Horse – Jesse Eisenberg, (The Social Network)

One of the deepest collections of performances this category has seen in recent years, but all signs point to Colin Firth with his rendition of King George VI’s trials of overcoming a speech impediment to be the voice of a nation in their greatest time of need. This is Firth’s second straight nomination in this category (2010, A Single Man) and like Natalie Portman he has pretty much swept all the major trophies in this category for 2010.

Also like Portman, Firth has some competition from a nominee that has overcome him in some smaller film festivals and award ceremonies. 2011 Academy Awards co-host James Franco has a legitimate shot to be the first host/winner since David Niven won in 1958 for his role in Separate Tables while he co-hosted the 30th Academy Awards. Franco’s performance in 127 Hours accentuates the unstoppable and mind altering “will to live,” that all people prey they can tap into when faced with the unthinkable. Even more so than Portman’s role in Black Swan, 127 Hours went “all in” on Franco’s portrayal of real-life adventurer Aron Ralston and his true story of impossible survival.

Gaining some steam in the last few months is Jessie Eisenberg as Facebook CEO and creator Mark Zuckerberg in The Social Network. Eisenberg had a fantastic script to work with and seemed to channel the socially awkward mind frame of a modern-day genius who ironically changed the way people communicate. Eisenberg would probably be more shocked if he won than anybody, although he too has won some smaller film critic’s awards in the “Best Actor” category for 2010, defeating both Firth and Franco.

Best Picture

What Will Win – The King’s Speech
What Should Win – The Fighter
Dark Horse – The Social Network

In 2006, the film Brokeback Mountain was nominated for 8 Academy Awards including “Best Actor,” “Best Supporting Actor,” “Best Supporting Actress,” and “Best Picture.” It was the “sure thing,” to sweep the Oscars. And even though it did receive three trophies, it was shut out of the four aforementioned categories and watched underdog Crash walk away with “Best Picture.”

The Kings Speech is in a similar position in 2011 as it has been nominated for 12 Oscars and projected to win at least a handful of gold statues with “Best Actor,” and “Best Picture,” in the forefront.

The Kings Speech is a film that leans very heavily on the exceptional performances of its lead actors Colin Firth and Geoffrey Rush and actually suffers when the two are not on screen together. The Fighter is more of an all-encompassing entity with incredible performances in every facet of the story and attention to detail that is second to none. Even long-shot The Social Network, which has been gaining momentum as of late, is a more suitable recipient of the academy’s top honor due to the fluid pace and submersing power of the story also supported with fantastic performances.

The overwhelming confidence in The Kings Speech might be setting it up for a hard fall, but it seems to be one of those films that’s a result of the perfect Oscar formula: add 2-parts past nominees, 1-part past winner, base on a true story and stir until British. Perfection!

Personally, I hope everyone including myself is wrong and Toy Story 3 wins it all. Go Woody and Buzz!


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